Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Warning: Beware of Exit Polls

From NewsBusters:

Studies of the last four presidential elections have shown these exit polls to be tremendously skewed towards the Democrat -- meaning that they showed a much greater percentage of the vote going to the Democrat than the actual results.
The article includes a memo from the polling organization Public Opinion Strategies. From that memo, here are some things to consider:
1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.

2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.

3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.

4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.

5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.
Read the whole thing.

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